“The purpose of the Long Bets Foundation is to improve long-term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes.”
This is an interesting concept: smart people put their money where their mouth is.
A sampler:
- By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.
- In 2012, 75 percept of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees.
- By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.
- Moore’s Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.
- As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the US.
- Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan’s “Tetrad” model in Laws of Media, Ken Wilber’s Holon in Sex, Ecology Spirituality, and R Buckminster Fuller’s Tetrahedral structures in Synergetics.
Agree? Disagree? Put your money where your mouth is.