Guardian Unlimited | Online | The second browser war:
However, what would happen if people’s web browsers were capable of running complex applications, with code based on openly published specifications? Two things: first, the operating system would become irrelevant, so there would be no need to upgrade to the next version of Windows, and second, the playing field for everything else would be thus levelled. [ . . .]
The concept of running applications within the web browser is not a new one, and indeed has been tried before and failed. But today, with a combination of cheaper bandwidth and improvements in storage and clustering technology, things are looking promising.
All well and good. The ideas of networked applications and storage/CPU power on demand are not new.
But this seems a slender reed on which to hang these bold predictions . . .
But this week, we find that Microsoft’s share has, for the first time, dropped. Ever so slightly, from 95.73% to 94.73%. “It’s the first time we’ve seen a sustained trend downward for them,” says Geoff Johnston, an analyst with WebSideStory, which produced these results. “We have a trend. It’s been about a month, and every day we have a steady incremental change.”
1.04% change over a month? Even annualized, it’s 12.5%. So IE drops from near ubiquity to overwhelming superiority and we’re supposed to feel optimistic?
Not to drown in snark, but it just seems a little premature to do much about, except write it down and check back in a month or two. I’d suggest taking a look at this when schools and universities get back in session and everyone is back from summer vacation.
What’s also interesting is that a Google search for ‘browser market share’ brings up endless re-use of the same stuff from WebSideStory, the firm cited in the Guardian piece. Tim Bray offered his own assessment earlier this week:
In the week ending Saturday July 10, 2004, for the first time, ongoing received more visits from browsers in the Mozilla family than from Internet Explorer. I’ve attached a graph.
I’m not surprised or disappointed that IE is losing share: stagnant products deserve nothing less. I think there will be more competition, more innovation, and we’ll see if, ten years on, the OS does finally become irrelevant.