Microsoft Notebook: Eyes are on Longhorn:
Microsoft has disclosed details about Longhorn so far in advance of its release in part to ensure that software developers are able to release programs in conjunction with its debut. The downside is that consumers, seeing what’s on the horizon, may be less willing in the meantime to upgrade to Windows XP from older versions of the operating system.
“Microsoft may have spoken about Longhorn far too early,” said Michael Gartenberg, research director at Jupiter Research.
Michael Cherry, Directions on Microsoft’s lead analyst for operating systems, drew a comparison to automobile sales. “Everybody knows the new models come out in the fall,” Cherry said. “If it’s July, are you really going to rush out and buy a new car, or are you going to wait and see what the new ones look like?”
And earlier in the same article:
Although the company isn’t saying when the next major version of Windows will be released, analysts point to a number of signs that suggest the release is at least two years away. For one thing, many people in the Windows team have been focusing on a security-related “service pack” update to be released for Windows XP later this year.
Lots of opportunity for other vendors to build in features that either co-opt Longhorn or compete against it . . . .