Methodology Here’s how it works: I’ll present a list of major marquee technologies dating back over the past couple of decades, divided into two groups of a half dozen or so each. One group is technology winners (examples: Java and the Personal Computer), the other is the losers (examples: Ada and Interactive TV). Then, I’ll present a list of ten or so factors which might plausibly be useful in predicting the success of new technologies (examples: Investor Support and Technical Elegance).
From there on it’s obvious: you build a matrix of the technology winners and losers and what each potential predictor would have said about them. From this, with any luck, patterns emerge and it becomes obvious which of the predictors are the ones that work.
It will be instructive to see which predictors work in the real world (ie, why was interactive TV considered a clear winner?).