One for the petrolheads

Reflecting on my disappointment with Why We Drive, a few ideas for the enthusiast driver.

It seems to me that if lovers of recreational driving, be it track days or simply cruising through the canyons, are serious, they should really be working to minimize functional driving — the daily commuting cycle and the school run, the shopping trip. Consider how many times we have had to drive to a store to pick up an item, maybe a prescription weighing ounces, and driven a two ton car a handful of miles to do it. Or how many commutes are across built-up areas, not across fields or undeveloped land, and the resulting congestion that could be served via some kind of transit network?

This history of the electric car is interesting, noting a few points that I think still hold up.

This —

In the years that followed, as more people bought private cars, electric vehicles took on a new connotation: they were women’s cars. This association arose because they were suitable for short, local trips, did not require hand cranking to start or gear shifting to operate, and were extremely reliable by virtue of their simple design. As an advertisement for Babcock Electric vehicles put it in 1910, “She who drives a Babcock Electric has nothing to fear”. The implication was that women, unable to cope with the complexities of driving and maintaining petrol vehicles, should buy electric vehicles instead. Men, by contrast, were assumed to be more capable mechanics, for whom greater complexity and lower reliability were prices worth paying for powerful, manly petrol vehicles with superior performance and range.

— aligns with my own observations of the first few Tesla Model S cars I saw. They were all driven by women in their 40s or 50s and it made sense to me: I haven’t known many women (or men these days, to be honest) who care about torques or horsepower or know anything about maintenance intervals. They just want to get in and go: that’s reasonable, given that cars have been a mass-market product for 100 years. And now of course we see the Tesla as the car no one wants to drive…their enthusiasts can simultaneously laud the performance while they wait for the car to drive itself. If self-driving was the goal all along, why does it look like a car that requires a driver?

I’m not sure this gets it right:

The future of urban transport will not be based on a single technology, but on a diverse mixture of transport systems, knitted together by smartphone technology. Collectively, ride-hailing, micromobility and on-demand car rental offer new approaches to transport that provide the convenience of a private car without the need to own one, for a growing fraction of journeys. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, calls this “unbundling the car”, as cheaper, quicker, cleaner and more convenient alternatives slowly chip away at the rationale for mass car ownership.

I don’t think there is a model for the urban car: for me, you can build a city for cars or for people but you can’t have both. Cars take up a lot of room as they are, and they require far too much land when in motion and when stored/parked. We’ve all seen the comparisons of how many more people can be carried by increasingly dense forms of transport, from bicycles to buses. Even a car with all seats occupied doesn’t come close to what a bus can carry and there is no real difference in speed in the city. If you were to log your journeys in a city, you would likely find, as I have, that you rarely average more than 30 miles an hour, and generally closer to 20. And for that you don’t require 200 horsepower to move two tons of sheetmetal. An e-bike, a scooter, an as-yet undesigned urban utility transport — a driver and some room for passengers or cargo, in a much smaller footprint and a top speed of 30 mph — would be all you needed in the event a bus or bike didn’t work.

So the enlightened petrolhead would be all in on transit and bikes and grade/use-separated roads, to preserve her enjoyment of the hobby. Arguing for safer roads with fewer cars aligns really well with being a enthusiast. Fewer and better drivers, more options to get around that don’t put cars on the road means fewer hoonigans with “MOVE RIGHT” window decals. Not sure we’ll have fewer fartcan exhaust mods but we take the rough with the smooth, I guess.

Addendum: you don’t have to do a lot of ciphering to see how low average travel speeds are, from surface streets to highways. A sampling of trips logged by my insurance company’s widget…the bold numbers are highway trips, with a 55 mph speed limit. The rest are surface streets, 35mph in most places.

 

the housing cartel, explained

This piece in CNN Business lays out most of the game plan: buy up as much housing stock as you can with institutional funds, then rent it back to would-be homeowners, all to prop up the 20th C lifestyle that is going to kill millions over the next century.

For institutional investors starved of returns on government bonds, “Generation Rent,” the mostly millennial cohort born between 1981 and 1996, provides an opportunity for reliable long-term income. With an increase in the average age of renters comes rising demand for larger suburban houses suitable for families.
“Wealthier people are renting for longer and their demands are going up,” said Gemma Kendall, who advises investors in multi-family properties for Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
That’s precipitated a rush by institutions to buy — and build — so-called “single-family houses,” displacing private landlords and making big investors a powerful new force in housing markets.

Housing is no longer shelter or a place to invest in your community through ownership: it’s just another asset you can’t afford. Berkshire Hathaway closed at $418,000 today: might as well buy a piece of that.

The coronavirus pandemic gave institutional investors all the proof they needed that single-family rentals could survive a severe economic downturn.
Real estate analytics firm Green Street estimates that single-family rental values in the United States are 15% above their pre-Covid level. Renting out single-family homes is expected to deliver annual returns for private investors in the next three years of 6.8%, compared with 6.1% for apartments, 6.3% for industrial properties and 6.4% for malls, Green Street said in a July report.

And imagine that: the 2008 crash that no one was held accountable for was the spark that lit this fire.

In the years following the 2008 housing crash, pension funds and traditional real estate investors mostly steered clear, leaving it to opportunistic hedge funds and private equity firms to mop up supply.
Now, big institutions can’t get enough of family homes. Earlier this year, funds managed by Invesco Real Estate, one of the world’s largest property investors, gave Mynd $5 billion to buy 20,000 homes in the United States in the next three years on behalf of pension funds.
Mynd is currently buying between 30 and 40 homes a month and wants to increase that to over 1,000, according to Brien.

All this does is tighten supply/reduce inventory and raise prices which makes this so maddening: I wonder why “people […] can’t afford to buy their own home?”

Dave Flitman, the CEO of Builders FirstSource, told CNN Business in July that construction on new single-family housing units was up 34% in the second quarter of 2021, compared to the same period in 2019 before the pandemic.
These developments are often in good school districts and offer a quality of life that might otherwise be inaccessible to people who can’t afford to buy their own home, Palacios said.

Maybe it’s because so many homes are being bought up, so many new subdivisions are being built as rentals, and it all comes down to land.

And this was adorable…

For renters accustomed to knowing their landlord by name, dealing with a corporation might take some adjusting to.
As institutions move into an industry overwhelmingly dominated by “mom-and-pop” landlords, analysts say they’re giving renters more choice, improving the quality of homes available and streamlining processes through technology.
“We would argue that [institutional money] is driving standards up in the rental market, which is a positive thing for households and the sector,” said Oliver Knight, head of residential development research at Knight Frank.

You would argue that but you would be wrong. Property managers don’t actually manage the property: they manage the investment, doing as little as they can, slow-walking repairs, so long as the occupancy rate stays high. The land is the asset, the building rents are just how it gets paid for. Sure, there may be some kindly old duffer who keeps his place up, some old doll who likes to put flowers in the entry way, but they are few and far between.

There are, of course, plenty of private landlords who treat tenants badly or fail to meet expectations without fear of any public backlash. Unlike institutions, they have no corporate reputation to protect. Institutions are also “in it for the long term,” said Knight of Knight Frank. “It pays for them to be a good landlord and keep everything well maintained and working,” he added.

When all the rentals are in the hands of a few concentrated corporate landlords – when Main Street and your street are owned by Wall Street — what options will renters have? Rents rise to meet wages and no one will care about the landlord’s reputation when they need a place for their family. There will no pool of vacancies to choose from: supply will be tight and rents will stay high.

So what is to be done?

A split-rate land rent that values the highest and best use of the land, with higher rate on land than on the improvements, is the best option. But as a start, anytime a single family home’s tax bill goes to an address other than the address of the home, it’s considered a business and should be taxed accordingly. 20% of Seattle’s single family homes were rental last I looked. We have zoning laws that prevent businesses from opening up in the middle of a residential block: why do we permit Wall St to siphon off local wages by breaking up neighborhoods? Ideally, a well-tuned ground rent would put enough affordable housing into the market to hold shelter rents down.

Housing is all about land and land is a cartel, a group of owners whose interest is in keeping up the value/sale price of their property through managing supply — blocking development, opposing zoning changes, clinging to street parking and parking minimums, doing whatever they can to keep their unearned wealth. The value of location, of land, is created and increased by the activity around it. A vacant or underused parcel of land in a strong economy will gain in value with no effort on the owner’s part. That’s unearned wealth, and should be recaptured for the benefit of those who created it through a ground rent.

The answer is “land.”

Not the only answer, as this article explains, but it’s one of the biggest factors.

Choosing a route and paying for the land are two parts of the same task.

Probably a good time to remind Seattleites that Paris — which takes up half the land as Seattle with 3 times the population — has several large railway stations — Gare du Nord, Gare de Lyon, Gare de l’est — within that footprint as well as the Métro and the RER lines. Not all of them date back to the 19th Century.

It’s never been clear why Seattle needed such large coaches, with the requirement of larger tunnels. It’s also understood that cut and cover tunnels, was were used in Paris for a lot of the Métro, wouldn’t do here. But why so large? They seem to be as large as a freight locomotive.

But the biggest issue is the land used for stations, the value (and price) of which will rise dramatically as it get puts to a higher and better use through density and development. Because we have a land cartel instead of a land monopoly, we are forced to pay high prices for land, rewarding speculators at public expense and delaying action on what really should be seen as a war on climate change and housing affordability. But we have decided to support a cartel of land owners vs managing it for the benefit of everyone.

land ownership as a driver of climate change

What if the privatization of public land, the expansion of the cartel of land owners, has helped bring about climate change by putting more and more land into the market, land that has high resource cost to make livable (think: Miami and the rest of SoFla, Houston, the desert SW)? If land had remained in public hands and rented out under a leasehold model, we could have increased density and allowed those areas to remain untouched.

In a poetic twist, it seems that many of the areas least conducive to life without massive support are the ones feeling the most effects of climate change — flooding and daily tide overflows in Miami, droughts and reduced water flows in the desert SW. All of those areas have transformed the land through development and added automotive transport, increasing greenhouse gases and exacerbating the heat island effect.

Food for thought, but it does feel like the planet is trying shake us off like a dog tries to rid itself of fleas.

Seattle, then and now

Looked at this book today and was struck by the artist’s statement that Seattle was chosen as America’s most livable city. Maybe in 1983…

I wish the people who talk about the Seattle they remember, when there was no street crime or homelessness or anything but blue skies and gentle rains (with plenty of parking) remembered this:

In 1983 Mary Ellen Mark began photographing a group of fiercely independent homeless and troubled youth who were making their way on the streets of Seattle as pimps, prostitutes, panhandlers, and smalltime drug dealers. Initially published in July of that same year in Life magazine, this work culminated in the 1988 publication Streetwise, and the 1984 documentary film of the same name by Mark’s husband, filmmaker Martin Bell.

[…]

Tiny’s story also insists that we consider the roots and cycles of poverty, addiction, and homelessness—and their potentially destructive manifestations and effects: even the safest and most secure family life may suddenly feel terrifyingly vulnerable. An already unstable family situation may implode.

Maybe Seattle — the city that introduced Ray Charles to heroin — has always had some inequality but no one saw it until the gap between rich and poor became more visible. Poor is easy: start at zero. But rich…is rich a rambler with a garage or a high-rise apartment with a car elevator?

public vs private space

Throughout the world, some of the most delightful urban spaces are also some of the smallest. It’s a counterintuitive observation that we ought to give more thought to.This is true of both private and public space. Think of the most charming, appealing backyards you’ve ever spent time in. Gardens. Patios. Courtyards. Alleyways or pedestrian streets.

The idea of this piece is about “delight per acre,” about high value experiences in small space, human-scaled and relatable.

But the part that jumps out at me is the private spaces that are walled off as private yards vs public spaces that are often far apart and too small for the number of people who could use them.

How many 6,000 square foot yards could be cut down to a quarter of that size — or even less per household in a multi-story development — with the balance going to public plazas, squares, wider sidewalks? The elevation of single family homes and car storage over a wider variety of housing for a wider variety of people is catching up to Seattle and other cities. We have all the land we will ever have and have ever had but we seem to have more people all the time.

Whenever a population converges around a certain location, the land, of which there is only a limited supply for each location, becomes more expensive to live on; people have to increasingly pay to live on land, and this in turn affects the entire economy.

This affects local businesses two-fold, in the rents they have to pay for their space and in the wages they pay to their workers. And the rentier/landlord charges as much as she can, taking their unearned increment every month, styling themselves as investors, rather than predatory speculators.

it’s not housing that is unaffordable (sorry, Mother Jones) but land

But with apologies to the staff at Mother Jones, land and what is built on it are inextricable. We can’t imagine housing without land, even though many people rent their housing and own neither their shelter or the land under it.

There is now not a single state or county in the US where a minimum wage worker on a 40-hour week can afford a two-bedroom home at the fair market rent, according to a report published by the National Low Income Housing Coalition this week. In 93 percent of US counties, such full-time minimum wage workers can’t afford a one-bedroom apartment, either.

CEO Diane Yentel [said] in an emailed statement[,] “Without a significant federal intervention, housing will continue to be out of reach for millions of renters.”

To crunch these numbers, the NLIHC relied on a common metric for housing affordability: a home is affordable if it requires workers to pay up to 30 percent of their monthly income in rent. Using this metric, NLIHC’s report found that workers would need to earn a little less than $52,000 per year—or $24.90 per hour—to afford a modest two-bedroom home, or at least $20.40 per hour to afford a one bedroom. The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour.

I prefer a different metric, one that gets people out of the landlord’s game. How many years (at 2,000 hours/year) will you need to work to own a place of your own? At $24.90/hour, you would earn $49,800/year. To buy an $800,000 home (the current median price in Seattle), you would need to put every penny for 16 years to buy that. And people argue that $15/hr is too much. Ideally, it would be about 10,000 hours but where are the $300,000 homes in Seattle or other cities?

But we know that home prices are not the real metric: it’s land. In cities with huge lots (6,000 sq feet) and a slavish worship of single family homes on those big lots, you are setting a cap on the population that can buy in, turning the rest into renters or forcing them to live outside the city and commute in. Why you would want to pump local wages outside city limits to enrich neighboring communities is a question to ask your local city council. This is especially important when you consider than many of workers forced to live outside the city where they work are city or state workers: why could you take wages funded by local taxes and send them to be spent in other cities?

And the answer to the question above — “where are the $300,000 homes in Seattle or other cities?” — is that they are all over those cities. The tax records for King County — where Seattle is — make clear that where the assessments on housing have risen slowly over the years, the assessed value of land has sometimes exceeded the value of what is built on it. What makes housing unaffordable is the land under it. We have all the land we have ever had and will ever have but we can make far better use of it, to make a better life for everyone and generate more revenue for those cities.

Why I drive

The author of Why We Drive is a recreational driver, an enthusiast. I didn’t see any references to his own experience with Marchetti’s Constant. This would explain why I found I could summarize the main thrust of the book as a haiku, distilled from the very end of the book:

i was never an
athlete but watch me knee drag
this sunlit canyon

Matthew Crawford is younger than I am but makes a convincing showing as the youngest “old man yelling at clouds” I have seen in some time. His “Why We Drive” is an incoherent muddle that could have been so much better and even more useful 10 or 20 years ago.

The book purports to be a paean to the at-risk skills of driving, as if there is something so unique to a set of behaviors we have only been able to express over the past 100 years that we will be diminished as a species if they are lost. He never really defines what he means. He mentions spatial/situational awareness but does he really think we would have survived the savannah without that? Has he seen the restored videos of public streets before cars and as cars entered the picture? Chaos…people walking everywhere, horses, carriages, often a streetcar, and sometimes a car or motorbike…does he not think we possessed spatial awareness then? There is some value to feedback through the senses, as one feels in a car — or on a bike or even on foot, as a trail runner might find when going from an open grassland into a woodland path, switching from gravel to packed mud interspersed with roots. There is nothing unique to driving about any of this other than speed, and as the author himself admits, speed kills.

What he refers to as skills is actually experience. He enjoys the experience of going faster than he should in places where perhaps he shouldn’t. He likes twisty roads or open vistas through a car window, ever-changing and new. And while the experience might be enabled or enhanced by some skills, he doesn’t make a convincing case for driving as some innately valuable or universal experience.

He objects strongly to traffic cameras and speed limits, while citing a few examples of his own inability to adhere to them. More tellingly, he objects to his own behavior being policed, even as he tells of two separate incidents where he was compelled to remonstrate with distracted drivers and almost rear-ended another vehicle. Twice. I can’t tell if he is being honest with us or a raging hypocrite: being a left lane camper or other self-appointed traffic enforcer is one of the most dangerous behaviors on the road, something he fails to see, even as he writes about road rage elsewhere in the book.

For all the references to skill and the praise for those who possess them, the author seem to forget something so basic as training/licensing:

Today, Germany has one of the lowest rates of traffic fatalities in the world, despite (or because of?) the discretion granted its drivers. Germans had to learn how to drive fast, over the course of decades. This involved not just acquisition of a technical skill, but a kind of moral education that took place during the postwar peace.

I suspect the more intensive training and rigorous licensing has a lot more to do with the discretion afforded German drivers than any moral education. The cost alone — around $1,800 — would serve as a deterrent for many non-serious drivers here in the USA where one can take the license with no training at all. Driving in the UK and Europe is both more rigorously licensed and more expensive. His only other mention of driving anywhere but the USA is his discussion of the London cab driver’s exam — The Knowledge. The hope is to equate that to the skills he thinks we need to retain but learning a mental map of a unique and historically dense city has little in common with the open roads of the USA.

There are quite a few inconsistencies that jumped out at me. He spends a lot of time carping about technology he doesn’t like or understand but neglects to accept his own agency. He complains about having to install Microsoft Word with a several page harangue about his interactions with the tech support person he was assigned, who he assumes is either a robot or a slave. He never mentions why he has to have the product, other than “for writing.” To which I say bullshit. I am writing now and it’s not in Word. I am not a lauded philosopher/mechanic with several books in print but I do write and Word is never my choice of tool. Seems like knowledge and choice of tools is right up his alley, so it’s puzzling how he simply ignores a discussion or exegesis of his writing tools.

Perhaps he needs to submit his work in Word format? Easily finessed with a trip to the local library…bring the text, copy/paste/save. Are there features he needs? He doesn’t say. What happened to the version he used on previous books? Obsolete? Or simply out of date? Again, no details but this is all part of the old man yelling at clouds schtick, where you bring up relatable gripes and your peers will just nod along, like the tiresome Boomer/Millennial garbage. Again, I am older than he is but he talks like he is 20 years older.

His mention of planned obsolescence was later refined to “forced obsolescence” to refer to the various government programs to remove old cars from the highways. But that’s not really obsolescence to much as removal. Anyone spending the time and money the author has on a 1975 Super Beetle restoration needs to better define obsolescence. There is little about the Super Beetle (disclosure: I had a 1973 whose neck I wrung cheerfully on a regular and frequent basis) that makes it suitable for today’s roads, though I suspect skill will be proffered as the equalizer. I suggest physics will have the last word there.

He spends a lot of time talking about surveillance capitalism, as if we don’t know what that is or how it works. Lots of talk of a dystopian future where we are tracked and marketed to, with no awareness of how things can be turned off or ignored or how long this has been going without automakers getting into the mix. We don’t yet have the sort of fully-automated car/personal assistant he excerpts from a TC Boyle story so it’s hard to argue against something we may never see.

Institutional power that fails to secure its own legitimacy becomes untenable. If that legitimacy cannot be grounded in our shared rationality, based on reasons that can be articulated, interrogated, and defended, it will surely be claimed on some other basis. What this will be is already coming into view, and it bears a striking resemblance to priestly divination: the inscrutable arcana of data science, by which a new clerisy peers into a hidden layer of reality that is revealed only by a self-taught AI program—the logic of which is beyond human knowing.

What a philosopher could point out here is that algorithms are codified biases, the opinions and beliefs of their creator turned into rulesets and decision trees. Algorithms are no more inherently evil than the speed cameras he hates: any tool can be misused, as any mechanic would understand. Surely using speed cameras is safer than high-speed pursuits, even if it denies the driver the chance to debate with the highway patrol.

Then he finds the setting on his iPhone that turns on “do not disturb” when it detects movement it associates with driving to be intrusive and yet gleefully subverted by pressing the “I’m not driving” button. It never seems to dawn on him that the iPhone might be in the hand of a passenger in a car or bus or train and that’s why there is the option to turn that off. That seems like a very sensible and user-focused algorithm…switch to “do not disturb” when motion is detected but give the user the power to turn it off, in case they are not actually driving.

And that’s part of the problem. There isn’t a lot of “we” or even “you” in the book: it’s all about him. In his world, there would be no distracted drivers, distractions, or even any other drivers at all, just a man carving canyons at 45 in a 25 or getting his sideways drift on.

This would have been a better book and more in line with the argument he claims to be making if he acknowledged that driving is rarely a recreational activity for most people: it’s a necessary evil and often more evil than necessary. So to get the world he wants, he needs fewer drivers, something I wrote about in 2009.

He needs more people riding buses, bikes, and trains. And he needs more electric cars so he will still have access to gasoline in the years of motoring he expects to enjoy. But he doesn’t seem to understand that driving as recreation is a very niche interest. He is making the same mistake that city and state transportation departments have been making for decades, putting the needs of cars ahead of those of people. Again, an opportunity to talk about tools and solutions…what are the choices for how to get to work or shopping and why do some places manage to offer different choices? Wouldn’t he rather drive on a grade-separated roadway where bikes and pedestrians were physically screened off from cars? Wouldn’t he rather his daughters had that choice?

How much public land in our cities has been carved out for the use of cars vs people? Quite a lot…the amount of land devoted roadways and parking in the U.S. can cover the entire state of West Virginia—that’s about 24,000 square miles or 62,000 square kilometers. He forgets or ignores that we don’t drive all the time, even as he inventories how many cars — running or otherwise — he owns. Car storage, generally subsidized by tax payers as street parking or as downtown lots that could be used for any number of better purposes (housing, in our increasingly expensive cities comes to mind), is completely ignored in his adulation for the not-so-open road.

Many cities no longer have room for cars. Many no longer have room for single family homes, which would put a crimp in the style of anyone who keeps a few non-running cars as parts donors. It’s hard to make sense of this book in the early part of a century that will see so much needed change. A better book would have steered a path through those changes with a plan to preserve the experience — not the skills — Crawford places so much value in. But he chose instead to fulminate against some as-yet-unbuilt nanny state, even as he demonstrates the need for it.

if the cost of food tracked the cost of housing

Would you pay £63 for a chicken? The artist who built a street to show house price madness

Beginning with the very origins of money, [the show] moves from financial deregulation to the bonfire of mortgage-backed securities, to the gushing petrol pump of quantitative easing, and relentless house price inflation – noting that it would now cost £63 to buy a chicken if groceries had increased at the same rate as homes. With Fishbone’s smooth American accent providing a slow, measured monologue, calmly explaining the intricacies of the global banking system over the top of his Powerpoint slides, it’s as if The Big Short has been remade as a soothing meditation video.

[…]

The film is certainly an entertaining 15 minutes. It charts how “money became postmodern” after Nixon removed the US dollar from the gold standard in 1971, giving central banks a free licence to print cash. “Money has always been a fictional thing,” Fishbone says, and all systems of valuation are “just social contracts based on mutual agreement and backed by some kind of institutional violence”.

The fiction doesn’t matter if we agree with it but that’s not his argument. The problem with the “mutual agreement” he mentions is that’s not universal…the property owners agree on how to value what they have but not with an eye to telling the have nots who make their property worth owning.

the work is there and so are the workers but where is the housing?

KETCHUM, Idaho—Ethan McKee-Bakos has had no trouble finding work since he moved to this upscale mountain town last February, earning $60,000 a year from two jobs. But Mr. McKee-Bakos spent nearly six weeks living out of his SUV in the nearby Sawtooth National Forest, unable to afford rent for a condo.

$60,000 a year…that equates to $30/hour, double the $15 wage target people are fighting for. And it’s not enough.

“If you live in Ketchum, there’s no shortage of work. There’s just a shortage of where you can live,” said Mr. McKee-Bakos, who works as a supply manager at a local hospital and a bouncer at a bar. “This is the first time I’ve experienced any type of homelessness.”

Like many towns in the West with economies built around tourism, Ketchum is facing a cascading housing crisis caused by a rush of new residents during the Covid-19 pandemic, growing demand for workers during the economic boom that has followed, and a shortage of affordable homes that was years in the making.

Just another town where the land values are so high — the revenue rentiers can extract from them so lucrative — that working people, the ones who make the town go, are left out in the tiresome game of musical chairs that is the private property market. A desirable location and the recreational benefits that go with it, some historical ties (Hemingway is associated with the town) — none of which was created by the people who hold the land — and all the value gets siphoned out by rentiers and landlords.