Month: June 2021

How can that many people owe that much? The rent is obviously too damn high, as others have said.

According to the National Equity Atlas COVID rent-debt study, King County renters owe an average of $4,750 in back rent. Combined, those 39,000 renters owe $186 million in back rent. 55% of all people facing a pandemic-related financial hardship are low-income, 62% are People of Color and 71% lost employment-related income in the last year. That is unacceptable.

Not that I want to see a wave of evictions as they try to make up the difference, but I suspect the amount the landlords need to cover their costs vs what they are asking are pretty widely separated. What percentage of Seattle’s renters is that 39,000? The next lowest county has only one third the number of folks in arrears and only 28% of the total amount owed. Fewer debtors and less owed overall…

We know that rents rise and fall with demand, not as any basis in value. So these debtors unfortunately bought at the peak and now their earnings are in the trough of the wave. Not their fault and it is exactly what Henry George set out to understand when he wrote Progress and Poverty.

Like a flash it came over me that there was the reason of advancing poverty with advancing wealth. With the growth of population, land grows in value, and the men who work it must pay more for the privilege.”
There it was: whenever a population converges around a certain location, the land, of which there is only a limited supply for each location, becomes more expensive to live on; people have to increasingly pay to live on land, and this in turn affects the entire economy. George’s insight that day articulated one of the root causes not only of economic inequality, but of a great number of social ailments that still plague society today, from booms and busts to widespread unemployment, environmental destruction, urban sprawl, suburban dystopia, and rural wastelands.

Brokerages may be able to skirt the tax, however, if agents each form their own LLC or S corporation.

Yet we know that ground rent on any single acre of land downtown or nearby could command a lot more that a few high earners will generate:

$4 million per year (annualized, to be sure, so not so much at the beginning) is real money. Seattle’s downtown is just under 500 acres: getting all of it under a ground rent model would take some time but imagine a $2B annual revenue stream, just from that, not even the rest of the commercial land in Seattle or the other taxes, fees, and whatnot. Rather than target 1% of businesses, let’s spread the load over the whole city.

As for the realtor who says “I’m working seven days a week right now…It’s the hardest it’s ever been in 16 years to get a buyer under contract on a house,” I’m guessing the mortgage broker has to do a lot as well, getting people qualified for 7 figure loans on mid 6 figure homes with ever more expensive land.

This article explains a lot of why proximity — often mislabeled as “location” — matters.

These trading floors are in the most expensive cities in the world — New York, London, Paris, Tokyo — and yet in the midst of the convulsions of 2020, they increased their footprint. They understand the value of proximity, of location, far better than the cities where they work. The value of land is created by the activity on and around it: the land under Wall Street supports an enormous amount of economic activity, none of which involves plowing or harvesting. But is New York rewarded for that wealth through a tax on that land, recapturing that value for those who helped create it, from the traders themselves to the baristas and tailors and chefs who make life complete?

We used to hear a lot about The Creative Class, all these people who are going to revitalize cities through creative work — film, TV, writing, advertising — rather than manufacturing or extraction. It was like magic, all those highly-paid, discerning people raising the standards of small to medium cities that needed a boost. But did anyone ever wonder how that value would be recouped, how a city that fostered that kind of creative environment, either investing in infrastructure or writing policy, would get rewarded? Or was it just a lot of headlines, followed by gentrification, until the next up-and-coming city put out the welcome mat, the usual boom/bust cycle?

Location has value. The investment in infrastructure and services that lures busineses to cities needs to be paid for and a well-designed ground rent/land value tax could do it.

As a motto or slogan, it’s vague enough to allow the reader to add their own meaning. Some would assume it’s the dreadful weather (you know it rains all the time here) or the omnipresent clouds.

But what came to mind when I came up with it was that it really doesn’t have room for everyone who wants to live a complete life: just as an overpopulation of grazing animals will first destroy the landscape before a population crash, Seattle can’t support the 750,000 people who live here now unless they are willing to pay more of their wage income to rentiers and speculators. The crash, if it comes, will be an exodus, not a die-off, but all it will mean is greater traffic issues as more people have to drive further to their jobs in the city.

The pandemic might have given the tech crowd the option of working remotely but the schools as well as the food — both retail and service — industry doesn’t have that option. So the things that make people brave the dreadful weather — the food and culture and access to the outdoors — all rely on the very people who are being priced out, marginalized like elk or deer when the balance of nature gets out of whack.

The solution, as with the way wolves restored the rivers of Yellowstone, is re-introduce the apex predator…in this case, it would be a tax on land that forces landowners to build and gets local people back in the game. We hear lot from the professional activist community about Vienna’s social housing. But we are never told how it works, as if it all appears by magic…

So there is the key: the city controls the land outright, buying up suitable parcels and getting them developed. Seattle couldn’t afford that but it doesn’t need to as it owns plenty of developable parcels it could allow developers to build on with a ground rent and an upfront of $0. The old Seattle PD headquarters site (at 601 4TH Ave) is more than an acre in size and right downtown, across from city hall. It could have been developed under this model 15 years ago, but is still idle, a hole in the ground. I’d call it Durkan’s Folly but it predates her and she has plenty of her own mess to own.

The current owner is a Canadian developer who has done nothing with it in the years it’s been theirs and may not for years yet. Right now, it pays $567,937.38 in property taxes on a parcel valued at 100 times that: what if that was assessed a $2 million per acre per year land rent, double the Mercer Megablock rent but for a better location? That would be $4.6 million a year plus the revenue from the actual development — jobs, retail sales tax, etc. And that’s just a pure ground rent: we could adopt a split rate with a lower ground rent and a small property tax on the development.

Either would be an improvement over a speculators hole in the ground, right here in the crane capital of the USA. The key to affordable housing is affordable land: if you aren’t including that in the conversation, you’re wasting everyone’s time.

With 2.5% annual increase and a 99 year term, this is what $4.6M ground rent would mean for Seattle: A little — or a lot – more of that and maybe we can say that Seattle is for everyone.

This article offers a deeper examination of the term groupthink and I think I see it in our local (and possibly) national discussion (never debate) about housing and homelessness.

You don’t have to read many article or tweets from the local urbanists/professional activists to see themes repeating, about new affordable construction techniques/building designs (by architects and designers) or arguments for the creation of more landlords (!) by people who either want to build an accessory dwelling unit (ADU) or hope to find one they can afford. But they never mention land, without which all these ideas are just that.

But the same themes also exist in the news coverage: more encampments, more RVs on the streets, more homeowners disappointed or angry about all of that, but no solutions. Just more chin stroking or what looks like mutual aid but might just be a hobby. I remember a Girl Scout troop 15 years ago putting together hygiene kits for people who were living rough on Seattle’s streets: I don’t see any adult-proposed solutions that go any further than those of a group of 10 year old girls. If you are still delivering clean socks and hygiene products to the same people in the same location over a period of years, are you trying to make things better or just make what we shouldn’t accept more comfortable?

It might seem unduly harsh to say that but this is such a longstanding problem. If this was a natural disaster like a hurricane or earthquake, we wouldn’t see the same people on the street 15 years after the fact. But this manmade disaster, the unwillingness to actually share the land, to put land to work through taxes and zoning, seems to be unsolvable.

Utah, not a state known for its progressive ways, decided years ago that simply renting apartments and housing people was the most cost-effective way to get people off the street and, more importantly, to give them some stability, some consistency. An apartment, some rented furniture, a place to safely store one’s few possessions, a bathroom, and some social services gets people off the street and keeps them off at a lower cost per person.

Of course, this might prove difficult in a market like Seattle where the high value of land drives up shelter costs but again, there is a solution to that: tax commercial land to fill out its highest and best use as a development and see what that does to rents. Developers need cheaper land and people, those currently housed or those who are priced out, need cheaper housing. But land is never mentioned in the myriad discussions about housing. Walk — don’t drive — through Seattle’s neighborhoods, along arterials like Lake City Way or Aurora Ave and see how many empty or underused parcels you see. Go on Google maps and see how many parking lots you see downtown — not structures but just paved lots that could be mixed-use developments, making far more for the city than the property taxes are bringing in.

Casting back to the RVs on neighborhood streets and all those parking lots, you begin to see Seattle as a city built for cars, not people. And you see Seattle itself as a collection of car-dependent suburbs, rather than a city — too much annexation and too little integration of the small cities around the old pioneer/port city.

You hear more about setting up RV parks for those who were able to get one vs any support besides sweeps for those in tents or sleeping in doorways. Years ago, there was a city-supported lot in a disused restaurant parking lot: it has since grown to become a formalized service. So we accept turning what could be remunerative land into an ersatz car camp, with services, while allowing our public spaces — sidewalks and city parks — to become tent campgrounds with no support. That land could be paying for the services people need, but we fritter that value away, like there will ever be more land. And then we wonder why this problem seems to be intractable.